The urban movement although having grown in membership in the mass organizations has been slow and not kept up with the urban disillusionment due to the downgrading of urban infrastructure due to the influx of dispossessed people from the people’s war. Thus, during the recent general strike it was maintained and sustained largely by rural cadre. This was further exacerbated by the fact that the Nepali Party have painted themselves into a corner by accepting Indian, American and UN involvement. Thus, any attempt to bring the PLA out of the cantonments will be met with isolation, condemnation and possibly military incursion. The current ‘Communist Andolan’ can be nothing more than a pressure tactic to get the State and other parties to arrive at a better compromise.
Furthermore, some ML forces also argue that the Nepali Maoists fundamentally misunderstood the character of the Indian State and believe that a suitable compromise can be struck with India (a similar deal has been made with China apparently, with whom Prachanda is close) against ‘imperialism’ rather, than understanding the nature of Indian expansionism is itself in concert with imperialism (the main architect of the Nepali strategy is apparently Dr. Baburam Bhattarai). This has also resulted in strategic mistakes that ensures that State-capture is not possible. Perhaps unsurprisingly Bhattarai is the Indian choice over Prachanda for the Prime Minister-ship of the consensus government if a Maoist leader has to be chosen (although some argue that that this is more of a tactic by India to sow divisions within the Maoist ranks).
It is only through working out these series of contradictions can the Maoists capture State-power if that indeed is their goal, but the Indian forces do not believe that this to be possible unless the leadership of Nepal is able to correct many of the “errors” that have been made since 2006. But as Mao said, “The Revolution is not a dinner party”.